Where the market is wrong on Hapoel Beer Sheva v Sabah FA
Hapoel Beer Sheva meet Sabah FA in the UEFA Champions League play-offs at Superbet Arena - Giulesti, Bucharest.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sabah FA, 68% against 58%. Attacking output favors Hapoel Beer Sheva on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Sabah FA at 60%; double chance reads Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw 58%, Sabah FA or draw 71%.
Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Sabah FA, L 0-4 @ Hapoel Haifa, W 2-0 @ FK Crvena Zvezda, W 1-0 v FK Crvena Zvezda.
Sabah FA are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Hapoel Beer Sheva, W 2-0 v Kapaz, W 4-0 v Aarhus, L 1-2 @ Aarhus.
The market prices HAP at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Sabah FA: a 10.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
