Where the market is wrong on Aston Villa U21 v Middlesbrough U21
Aston Villa U21 meet Middlesbrough U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One regular season at Bodymoor Heath Training Ground, Birmingham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 57%. Attacking output favors Middlesbrough U21 on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.8 per match.
Aston Villa U21 arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Real Sociedad II, D 3-3 @ Fulham U21, L 0-4 v Brondby U21, L 0-2 v Crystal Palace U21.
Middlesbrough U21 are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 4-4 v Leeds United U21, W 3-1 @ Tamworth, L 1-3 @ AFC Bournemouth U21, L 0-1 v Norwich City U21.
The market prices AST at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Middlesbrough U21: a 13.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
