Where the market is wrong on Sanjoanense v Pacos de Brandao
Sanjoanense meet Pacos de Brandao in the Taça de Portugal 1/128-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sanjoanense, 30% against 0%. Attacking output favors Sanjoanense on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.0 per match.
Sanjoanense arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Pacos de Brandao, D 1-1 @ Salgueiros, D 1-1 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 v Fafe.
Pacos de Brandao are out of sorts: 0W-0D-1L from their last five (0/15 pts), 0 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Sanjoanense.
Sanjoanense hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sanjoanense 3-0 Pacos de Brandao.
The market prices SAN at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Pacos de Brandao: a 6.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
