Where the market is wrong on Oliveirense v Penalva Castelo
Oliveirense meet Penalva Castelo in the Taça de Portugal 1/128-finals at Estadio Carlos Osorio, Oliveira de Azemeis.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Oliveirense, 43% against 13%. Attacking output favors Penalva Castelo on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Oliveirense arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Penalva Castelo, W 3-2 v Vitória de Sernache, D 1-1 @ União Santarém, D 0-0 v Louletano.
Penalva Castelo are out of sorts: 0W-1D-3L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Oliveirense, L 1-3 @ Anadia, L 0-4 v Amarante, D 4-4 v Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol.
Oliveirense hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Oliveirense 4-0 Penalva Castelo.
The market prices OLI at 88% implied. Our number sits apart on Penalva Castelo: a 25.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
