Where the market is wrong on Banfield Res. v Instituto Res.
Banfield Res. meet Instituto Res. in the Reserve League clausura - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 50%. Attacking output favors Instituto Res. on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Instituto Res. at 52%; double chance reads Banfield Res. or draw 65%, Instituto Res. or draw 68%.
Banfield Res. arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Instituto Res., L 0-1 @ Rosario Central Res., D 1-1 v Tigre Res., W 1-0 v Vélez Sársfield Res..
Instituto Res. are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Banfield Res., D 1-1 v Aldosivi Res., D 2-2 @ Rosario Central Res., D 0-0 v Gimnasia La Plata Res..
The market prices BAN at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Instituto Res.: a 6.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output