Where the market is wrong on Ermis v PAEEK
Ermis meet PAEEK in the 2. Division regular season - 2 at Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 57%. Attacking output favors Ermis on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Ermis arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v PAEEK, W 2-0 v Akritas, D 1-1 v Kedros Agia Marina, L 0-1 @ Ethnikos Assias.
PAEEK are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 10 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Ermis, L 2-4 v Ethnikos Achna, D 0-0 v Karmiotissa, L 3-6 @ Ayia Napa.
PAEEK hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ermis 1-2 PAEEK.
The market prices ERM at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Ermis: a 16.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
