Where the market is wrong on ES Zarzis v US Monastirienne
ES Zarzis meet US Monastirienne in the Ligue 1 regular season - 3 at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 55%. Attacking output favors ES Zarzis on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.9 per match.
ES Zarzis arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v US Monastirienne, L 0-1 @ Diambars, W 3-1 v Diambars, L 1-2 @ CS Sfaxien.
US Monastirienne are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ ES Zarzis, D 3-3 v US Ben Guerdane, W 2-1 v Stade Tunisien, D 0-0 @ ES Hammam-Sousse.
US Monastirienne hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ES Zarzis 1-2 US Monastirienne.
The market prices ES at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on US Monastirienne: a 5.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
