Where the market is wrong on Pineto v Scafatese
Pineto meet Scafatese in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Scafatese the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 20% PIN, 27% draw, 53% SCA.
Scafatese rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1765 to 1489. Recent form leans Scafatese, 85% against 48%. Attacking output favors Scafatese on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Scafatese at 73%; double chance reads Pineto or draw 47%, Scafatese or draw 80%.
Pineto arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Campobasso FC, W 2-1 v Gubbio, L 0-2 @ Gubbio, L 1-4 v Arezzo.
Scafatese are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Avellino, W 6-0 @ Vado, W 1-0 v Desenzano Calvina, D 1-1 @ Desenzano Calvina.
The market prices PIN at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Scafatese: a 23.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output