Where the market is wrong on Jeddah Club v Al Najma
Jeddah Club meet Al Najma in the Division 1 regular season - 2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 28%. Attacking output favors Jeddah Club on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Jeddah Club at 53%; double chance reads Jeddah Club or draw 67%, Al Najma or draw 63%.
Jeddah Club arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Al Najma, W 3-0 @ Hajer, L 0-5 v Al Kholood, W 2-1 @ Al Taee.
Al Najma are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Jeddah Club, W 2-1 v Al Jandal, L 0-3 v Al-Ittihad FC, W 1-0 v Al Shabab.
The market prices JED at 20% implied. Our number sits apart on Jeddah Club: a 16.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
