Where the market is wrong on Mbeya City v Dodoma Jiji
Mbeya City meet Dodoma Jiji in the Ligi kuu Bara regular season - 2 at Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Mbeya City on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Mbeya City at 51%; double chance reads Mbeya City or draw 68%, Dodoma Jiji or draw 66%.
Mbeya City arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Mashujaa, W 2-0 v Dodoma Jiji, L 0-1 v Geita Gold, D 0-0 @ Tanzania Prisons.
Dodoma Jiji are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Mbeya City, D 1-1 @ Pamba Jiji, L 0-2 @ Azam, D 1-1 v Mbeya City.
The market prices MBE at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Dodoma Jiji: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output