UCD v Derry City: the model read
UCD meet Derry City in the FAI Cup round of 16 at UCD Bowl, Dublin. The model makes UCD the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% UCD, 30% draw, 30% DER.
UCD rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1454. Recent form leans UCD, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors UCD on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans UCD at 57%; double chance reads UCD or draw 70%, Derry City or draw 60%.
UCD arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v Cork City, W 2-1 @ Treaty United, L 0-6 @ Bray Wanderers, L 1-2 @ Longford Town.
Derry City are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ HNK Rijeka, W 3-0 v Tolka Rovers, L 1-2 v CSKA Sofia, L 2-3 @ CSKA Sofia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output