Where the market is wrong on Chichester City v Havant & Wville
Chichester City meet Havant & Wville in the Non League Premier - Southern South regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Chichester City, 48% against 38%. Attacking output favors Chichester City on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans Chichester City at 57%; double chance reads Chichester City or draw 69%, Havant & Wville or draw 59%.
Chichester City arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Hanwell Town, W 4-0 v Chippenham Town, L 0-3 @ Evesham United, W 1-0 @ Wimborne Town.
Havant & Wville are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Gloucester City, L 1-2 @ Plymouth Parkway, W 1-0 v Frome Town, L 0-2 v Uxbridge.
Chichester City hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Havant & Wville 0-1 Chichester City.
The market prices CHI at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Chichester City: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
