Where the market is wrong on Whitby Town v Alfreton Town
Whitby Town meet Alfreton Town in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 8 at Turnbull Ground, Whitby.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 43%. Attacking output favors Whitby Town on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Alfreton Town at 54%; double chance reads Whitby Town or draw 62%, Alfreton Town or draw 67%.
Whitby Town arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: W 6-3 @ Quorn, L 0-6 @ Cleethorpes Town, L 0-5 v Warrington Town, L 0-2 @ Ashton United.
Alfreton Town are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Rylands, W 4-0 v Hyde United, L 0-2 @ Stockton Town, L 1-2 @ Cleethorpes Town.
The market prices WHI at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Whitby Town: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
