Where the market is wrong on Ilkeston Town v Warrington Town
Ilkeston Town meet Warrington Town in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 40%. Attacking output favors Warrington Town on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Warrington Town at 50%; double chance reads Ilkeston Town or draw 65%, Warrington Town or draw 65%.
Ilkeston Town arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Cleethorpes Town, L 1-2 v Warrington Town, L 0-2 @ Whitby Town, W 2-1 @ AFC Emley.
Warrington Town are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Whitby Town, W 2-1 @ Ilkeston Town, D 1-1 v Cleethorpes Town, W 3-0 v Hyde United.
Warrington Town hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ilkeston Town 1-2 Warrington Town.
The market prices ILK at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
