Where the market is wrong on Annan Athletic v Motherwell U21
Annan Athletic meet Motherwell U21 in the Challenge Cup group stage - 3 at Galabank, Annan.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Annan Athletic, 33% against 17%. Attacking output favors Annan Athletic on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.5 per match.
Annan Athletic arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Motherwell U21, L 1-2 @ Kelty Hearts, W 2-0 v Dumbarton, D 2-2 v Berwick Rangers.
Motherwell U21 are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Annan Athletic, L 0-3 @ Alloa Athletic, L 3-4 @ Kelty Hearts, L 1-3 @ Queen of the South.
The market prices ANN at 67% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 9.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
