ASA v Cianorte: the model read
ASA meet Cianorte in the Serie D round of 16. The model makes ASA the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% ASA, 34% draw, 26% CIA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ASA, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors ASA on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans ASA at 61%; double chance reads ASA or draw 74%, Cianorte or draw 60%.
ASA arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Cianorte, W 1-0 @ Cianorte, W 4-0 v Ivinhema, W 2-1 @ Ivinhema.
Cianorte are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ ASA, L 0-1 v ASA, D 0-0 @ XV de Piracicaba, W 4-0 v XV de Piracicaba.
ASA hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ASA 5-1 Cianorte.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
