Where the market is wrong on Hampton & Richmond v Maidstone Utd
Hampton & Richmond meet Maidstone Utd in the National League - South national league south - 6 at Beveree Stadium, London.
Maidstone Utd rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1477. Recent form leans Maidstone Utd, 80% against 45%. Attacking output favors Maidstone Utd on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 85%. Draw no bet leans Maidstone Utd at 74%; double chance reads Hampton & Richmond or draw 44%, Maidstone Utd or draw 80%.
Hampton & Richmond arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Torquay, W 5-3 v Slough Town, L 0-2 @ Horsham, L 0-3 @ Weston-super-Mare.
Maidstone Utd are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Salisbury, W 3-2 @ Dorking Wanderers, D 1-1 v Folkestone Invicta, W 3-0 @ Walton & Hersham.
Maidstone Utd hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Hampton & Richmond 0-0 Maidstone Utd.
The market prices HAM at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Maidstone Utd: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 72 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
