Where the market is wrong on Dorking Wanderers v Truro City
Dorking Wanderers meet Truro City in the National League - South national league south - 6 at Meadowbank, Dorking.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 48%. Attacking output favors Dorking Wanderers on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans Truro City at 55%; double chance reads Dorking Wanderers or draw 63%, Truro City or draw 69%.
Dorking Wanderers arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Walton & Hersham, L 2-3 v Maidstone Utd, W 3-0 @ AFC Totton, D 0-0 @ Maidenhead.
Truro City are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Dagenham & Redbridge, W 2-0 @ Tonbridge Angels, W 2-1 v Southampton U21, D 0-0 @ Chelmsford City.
Dorking Wanderers hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Dorking Wanderers 0-0 Truro City.
The market prices DOR at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
