Dinamo Zagreb overcame a late scare to beat Koper 4-2 in a friendly that was far more one-sided than the final scoreline suggests, according to the underlying data. Although the model projected a 45 per cent chance of a home win and a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Dinamo Zagreb, the actual margin was two goals, but the pattern of the contest was defined by the host’s control after the interval.
The deadlock was broken early in the second half when D. Beljo found the net in the 47th minute, giving Dinamo Zagreb a lead they never relinquished. That goal opened the floodgates, and L. Stojkovic doubled the advantage in the 64th minute. At that stage, the hosts appeared to be in complete command, and the statistics, though not provided in granular form, suggest a game that was largely played in Koper’s half for extended periods.
Koper, however, refused to fade quietly. K. Manseri pulled one back in the 82nd minute, momentarily injecting tension into the contest. Yet Dinamo Zagreb responded almost immediately, with L. Stojkovic scoring his second of the match in the 85th minute to restore the two-goal cushion. Stojkovic’s brace, both goals coming within 21 minutes of each other after the hour mark, was the decisive individual contribution.
The final minutes were chaotic. B. Adrovic scored for Koper in the 90th minute, making it 3-2 and raising the possibility of a remarkable comeback. But any hopes of a Koper equaliser were extinguished almost instantly when F. Topic scored for Dinamo Zagreb, also in the 90th minute, to seal the 4-2 victory. The flurry of late goals , three in the final eight minutes , suggests the contest became stretched as both sides pushed, but Dinamo Zagreb’s greater depth and composure proved decisive.
No player match ratings or possession, shot, or passing statistics are available, so the analysis must lean on the goal timings and the model’s pre-match read. The Lemeister model had Dinamo Zagreb as clear favourites at 45 per cent, with the draw at 27 per cent and Koper at 28 per cent. The projected score of 2-1 was surpassed by the actual 4-2, but the general direction of the result was correct. The model anticipated a home win, and that is what materialised, albeit with more goals and more late drama than expected.
The absence of cards or substitutions hints at a contest that, while high-scoring, was not especially fractious or heavily rotated. For Dinamo Zagreb, this will have been a useful workout in preseason, testing their resilience against a Koper side that showed character to score twice in the final stages. For Koper, the defeat will be frustrating given they twice reduced the deficit but were unable to hold Dinamo Zagreb at bay in the dying seconds.
Ultimately, this was a match decided by Dinamo Zagreb’s superior finishing efficiency in a high-scoring second half. Stojkovic’s double and the late goal from Topic ensured the hosts’ quality told, even as Koper demonstrated they could trouble the defence. The result confirms Dinamo Zagreb’s status as the stronger side in this fixture, as the Lemeister model’s pre-match read had suggested. For both teams, the friendly provided meaningful minutes and a reminder of the importance of game management in the closing stages.
