Where the market is wrong on Leones Negros UDG v CA La Paz
Leones Negros UDG meet CA La Paz in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 8 at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara.
The baseline ratings are close, 1480 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 53%. Attacking output favors CA La Paz on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.5 per match.
Leones Negros UDG arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v CA La Paz, W 3-1 @ Tapatío, D 1-1 v Piratas, W 2-1 @ Durango.
CA La Paz are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Leones Negros UDG, W 3-0 v Mineros de Zacatecas, W 2-1 @ Cancún, D 1-1 v Cruz Azul Hidalgo.
The market prices LEO at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on CA La Paz: a 8.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
