Tepatitlán v Durango: the model read
Tepatitlán meet Durango in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 1. The model makes Durango the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 25% TEP, 33% draw, 42% DUR.
Durango rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1546. Recent form leans Durango, 78% against 57%. Attacking output favors Durango on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Durango at 62%; double chance reads Tepatitlán or draw 58%, Durango or draw 75%.
Tepatitlán arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Durango, L 0-2 @ CDS Tampico Madero, W 3-1 v CDS Tampico Madero, W 1-0 v CDS Tampico Madero.
Durango are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Tepatitlán, D 0-0 v Deportiva Venados, L 1-2 @ Deportiva Venados, W 2-1 v Deportivo Zap.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tepatitlán 0-1 Durango.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
