Where the market is wrong on Ruthin Town v Mold Alexandra
Ruthin Town meet Mold Alexandra in the FAW Championship north - 5.
Mold Alexandra rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1400. Recent form leans Mold Alexandra, 60% against 33%. Attacking output favors Mold Alexandra on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans Mold Alexandra at 63%; double chance reads Ruthin Town or draw 54%, Mold Alexandra or draw 73%.
Ruthin Town arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Mold Alexandra, D 2-2 @ Guilsfield, W 2-1 v Denbigh Town, L 1-2 @ Bala Town.
Mold Alexandra are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Ruthin Town, W 1-0 v Buckley Town, W 1-0 v Holyhead Hotspur, L 2-3 @ Guilsfield.
Mold Alexandra hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ruthin Town 0-4 Mold Alexandra.
The market prices RUT at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Mold Alexandra: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
