Where the market is wrong on Spakenburg v Barendrecht
Spakenburg meet Barendrecht in the Tweede Divisie regular season - 4 at Sportpark De Westmaat, Spakenburg.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Spakenburg, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Barendrecht on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.8 per match.
Spakenburg arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Barendrecht, W 2-0 @ Hoek, L 1-2 @ RKAV Volendam, W 1-0 v Katwijk.
Barendrecht are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Spakenburg, L 0-2 v Katwijk, W 2-1 @ Koninklijke HFC, L 1-3 v HHC.
The market prices SPA at 66% implied. Our number sits apart on Barendrecht: a 14.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
