Where the market is wrong on Spartak Kostroma v FK Neftekhimik
Spartak Kostroma meet FK Neftekhimik in the First League regular season - 11 at Stadion Urozhay, Karavaevo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Spartak Kostroma, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors Spartak Kostroma on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Spartak Kostroma arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v FK Neftekhimik, W 2-0 @ Ryazan, W 1-0 @ Chelyabinsk, W 1-0 v Rotor Volgograd.
FK Neftekhimik are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Spartak Kostroma, D 1-1 @ Chertanovo Moscow, W 2-0 @ Enisey, L 0-1 v FC UFA.
FK Neftekhimik hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Spartak Kostroma 1-0 FK Neftekhimik.
The market prices SPA at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on FK Neftekhimik: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
