Feirense v Tondela: the model read
Feirense meet Tondela in the Segunda Liga regular season - 16 at Estadio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira. The model makes Feirense the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% FEI, 32% draw, 32% TON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1468, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 47%. Attacking output favors Tondela on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Feirense at 53%; double chance reads Feirense or draw 68%, Tondela or draw 64%.
Feirense arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Arouca, D 2-2 @ União de Leiria, L 1-2 v Oliveirense, W 2-1 @ Pacos Ferreira.
Tondela are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Beira-Mar, W 2-1 v Academica, D 1-1 v Nacional, W 1-0 v Varzim.
Tondela hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Tondela 2-1 Feirense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
