Where the market is wrong on Holywell v Caernarfon Town
Holywell meet Caernarfon Town in the Premier League regular season - 5 at Bartons North Wales Stadium, Holywell.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Caernarfon Town, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Holywell on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 88%, over 2.5 goals around 92%. Draw no bet leans Caernarfon Town at 54%; double chance reads Holywell or draw 61%, Caernarfon Town or draw 66%.
Holywell arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 7 scored and 20 conceded. Recent results: L 3-5 v Caernarfon Town, L 1-3 v Barry Town, L 1-3 @ Llandudno, L 1-3 v GAP Connah S Quay FC.
Caernarfon Town are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 @ Holywell, W 2-0 @ Trefelin, W 3-0 v Colwyn Bay, L 1-2 v Penybont.
Caernarfon Town hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Holywell 3-5 Caernarfon Town.
The market prices HOL at 10% implied. Our number sits apart on Holywell: a 23.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
