Where the market is wrong on Aubagne v Concarneau
Aubagne meet Concarneau in the Ligue 3 regular season - 6 at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Concarneau, 48% against 28%. Attacking output favors Concarneau on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Aubagne arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 2 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Gobelins, W 2-0 v Bourg-en-bresse 01, L 0-1 @ Caen, L 0-1 v Bastia.
Concarneau are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Thionville Lusitanos, D 0-0 @ Valenciennes, W 2-0 v Villefranche, D 1-1 @ Quevilly.
Concarneau hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Concarneau 1-0 Aubagne.
The market prices AUB at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
