Where the market is wrong on Amorebieta v Ourense CF
Amorebieta meet Ourense CF in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 group 1 - 4 at Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Etxano.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 45%. Attacking output favors Amorebieta on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Amorebieta arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Ourense CF, W 2-0 @ Racing Santander II, L 0-1 @ Bergantiños, D 2-2 v Arosa.
Ourense CF are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Amorebieta, L 0-2 v Eibar II, W 2-0 @ Marino de Luanco, W 2-1 v Basconia.
Amorebieta hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Amorebieta 0-1 Ourense CF.
The market prices AMO at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
