Cambodia v Timor-Leste: the model read
Cambodia meet Timor-Leste in the ASEAN Championship group stage - 4 at Morodok Techo National Stadium, Phnom Penh. The model makes Cambodia the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% CAM, 28% draw, 27% TIM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 28%. Attacking output favors Cambodia on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 71%. Draw no bet leans Cambodia at 63%; double chance reads Cambodia or draw 73%, Timor-Leste or draw 54%.
Cambodia arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Indonesia, L 1-2 v Singapore, W 2-0 v Hong Kong, W 4-0 v Bhutan.
Timor-Leste are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Singapore, L 0-7 v Vietnam, W 3-1 v Brunei, W 3-0 @ Brunei.
Cambodia hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Cambodia 2-1 Timor-Leste.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
