Where the market is wrong on Kitakyushu v Iwaki
Kitakyushu meet Iwaki in the J-League Cup round of 128 at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu, Kitakyushu.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 40%. Attacking output favors Iwaki on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Kitakyushu arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Ehime FC, W 1-0 v Iwaki, D 1-1 v Matsumoto Yamaga, D 2-2 @ Tochigi SC.
Iwaki are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Tokushima Vortis, L 0-1 @ Kitakyushu, L 2-3 v Albirex Niigata, W 2-0 v Oita Trinita.
The market prices KIT at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Kitakyushu: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
