Where the market is wrong on Port Vale v Northampton
Port Vale meet Northampton in the League Two regular season - 8 at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent.
The baseline ratings are close, 1492 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Port Vale, 47% against 29%. Attacking output favors Port Vale on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Port Vale arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Chesterfield, L 0-2 @ Walsall, W 1-0 v Exeter City, L 0-1 @ Salford City.
Northampton are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rotherham, L 0-2 @ Shrewsbury, W 1-0 v Newport County, D 1-1 v Crawley Town.
Port Vale hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Northampton 0-1 Port Vale.
The market prices POR at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
