Where the market is wrong on Birmingham v Wolves
Birmingham meet Wolves in the Championship regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Birmingham, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors Wolves on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Birmingham arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Southampton, W 2-1 @ Wrexham, L 1-6 v Brentford, D 2-2 v Bristol City.
Wolves are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ West Ham, W 4-1 v Stoke City, W 2-0 @ Sheffield Wednesday, W 3-1 @ Preston.
Wolves hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2018: Wolves 2-0 Birmingham.
The market prices BIR at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Birmingham: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
