Where the market is wrong on Spartak Moscow v Zenit
Spartak Moscow meet Zenit in the Premier League regular season - 5 at Lukoil Arena, Moscow.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1696, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Zenit, 78% against 68%. Attacking output favors Zenit on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Zenit at 61%; double chance reads Spartak Moscow or draw 58%, Zenit or draw 73%.
Spartak Moscow arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Zenit, D 1-1 @ Rubin, W 2-1 @ Baltika, L 1-2 v FC Krasnodar.
Zenit are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Spartak Moscow, D 0-0 @ Krylia Sovetov, W 3-0 v Dynamo, L 1-2 v Rodina Moskva.
Zenit hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Spartak Moscow 2-0 Zenit.
The market prices SPA at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Zenit: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
