Switzerland U19 Women won a seven-goal contest against Iceland U19 Women in Sarajevo, prevailing 4-3 in a UEFA U19 Championship Group Stage match that the data shows was decided by a clinical first-half attacking display and a stubborn defensive resistance thereafter. The Lemeister model had favoured Switzerland with a 51% win probability, but the final margin was narrower than its projected 3-1 away victory, reflecting a spirited Icelandic fightback that came just short.
Switzerland opened the scoring in the 16th minute when R. Schallberger finished from G. Looser’s assist. Iceland responded through I. Magnusdottir in the 26th minute, equalising with help from R. Jonsdottir, but the parity lasted only two minutes. E. Pfister restored Switzerland’s lead in the 28th minute, assisted by E. Egli, before M. Rondalli added a third just before half-time in the 45th minute to give the Swiss a 3-1 lead at the break. The first half was decisive: Switzerland scored three times in a 17-minute spell, turning a 1-1 deadlock into a two-goal advantage, and Iceland’s inability to sustain their equaliser for more than two minutes proved costly.
The pattern of quick responses continued after the interval. E. Pfister scored her second of the match from the penalty spot in the 63rd minute, extending Switzerland’s lead to 4-1. Iceland refused to capitulate. I. Magnusdottir scored her second of the game in the 70th minute, again without an assist, before L. van Bemmel reduced the deficit further in the 83rd minute, with V. Einarsdottir providing the assist. Despite sustained pressure in the closing stages, Iceland could not find an equaliser. Discipline was a minor factor: Iceland’s J. Linnet was booked in the 46th minute, while Switzerland’s T. Vonnez received a yellow card in the 78th minute. Neither side had a player sent off, and the Swiss successfully managed the game despite the late Icelandic surge.
The rating data provides context for individual performances. R. Schallberger, scorer of the opening goal, earned a rating of 7.9, tying with E. Pfister for the highest mark. Pfister’s two goals, one from open play and one from the penalty spot, were reflected in her 7.9 rating. I. Magnusdottir, who scored twice, received a 7.7, while R. Jonsdottir’s assist earned a 7.2. M. Rondalli, scorer of the third Swiss goal, was rated 7.2. G. Looser, who set up Schallberger’s strike, was rated 7.1, and E. Egli, who assisted Pfister’s first goal, earned a 6.9. L. van Bemmel, who pulled one back, rated 6.8, and V. Einarsdottir, the assister, received a 6.6. J. Linnet, despite her booking, rated 7.0, while T. Vonnez, also cautioned, earned a 7.2. These ratings suggest the most influential players were the goal-scorers, with Pfister and Schallberger leading the way for Switzerland.
The match was defined by Switzerland’s efficiency in attack and Iceland’s inability to prevent conceding four times. The Swiss scored four goals from a limited number of chances, as implied by the projected 3-1 scoreline, while Iceland’s three goals came mostly in the second half when the deficit was already large. The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a Swiss victory was correct, though the final scoreline proved more dramatic than anticipated. For Switzerland, the result provides an important three points at the start of the group campaign, with the attacking display offering encouragement. For Iceland, the defeat leaves them needing to recover from a narrow loss, with the defensive lapses in the first half likely to be the focus for improvement. The group stage remains open, but Switzerland have seized the early advantage.
