Where the market is wrong on Ilirija v Primorje
Ilirija meet Primorje in the 2. SNL regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ilirija, 45% against 26%. Attacking output favors Ilirija on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.6 per match.
Ilirija arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Primorje, L 1-2 @ Slovan Ljubljana, W 2-0 v Rudar, W 6-0 @ Bistrica.
Primorje are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Ilirija, W 3-2 v Krka, L 0-4 @ Beltinci, W 1-0 v Dekani.
The market prices ILI at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Ilirija: a 7.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 72 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
