Where the market is wrong on Bokelj v Arsenal Tivat
Bokelj meet Arsenal Tivat in the First League regular season - 4 at Stadion pod Vrmcem, Kotor.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bokelj, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bokelj on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 22%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Bokelj at 63%; double chance reads Bokelj or draw 75%, Arsenal Tivat or draw 59%.
Bokelj arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 3 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Arsenal Tivat, L 0-1 @ Dečić, W 1-0 v Sutjeska, W 1-0 @ Petrovac.
Arsenal Tivat are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 0 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Bokelj, D 0-0 v Buducnost Podgorica, D 0-0 @ Mornar, D 0-0 @ Dečić.
The market prices BOK at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
