Where the market is wrong on Manchester City v Coventry
Manchester City meet Coventry in the Premier League regular season - 3 at Etihad Stadium, Manchester.
The baseline ratings are close, 1684 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 75% against 75%. Attacking output favors Manchester City on expected goals, 2.0 to 2.0 per match.
Manchester City arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Crystal Palace, W 2-1 v Bournemouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal, W 3-1 v Atletico Madrid.
Coventry are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Hull City, W 4-2 @ Plymouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal, W 2-0 v Monaco.
The market prices MAN at 81% implied. Our number sits apart on Coventry: a 29.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
