Where the market is wrong on Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsenal meet Chelsea in the Premier League regular season - 3 at Emirates Stadium, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Arsenal, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Chelsea on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Arsenal arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Aston Villa, W 3-0 v Coventry, W 3-0 v Manchester City, D 1-1 v Como.
Chelsea are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 15 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-3 v Brighton, W 2-0 v Luton, W 3-2 @ Fulham, W 3-1 v Real Sociedad.
Arsenal hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea.
The market prices ARS at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Chelsea: a 10.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
