Where the market is wrong on Chelsea v Brighton
Chelsea meet Brighton in the Premier League regular season - 2 at Stamford Bridge, London.
Brighton rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1523. Recent form leans Brighton, 68% against 50%. Attacking output favors Brighton on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Chelsea arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 15 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-3 v Brighton, W 2-0 v Luton, W 3-2 @ Fulham, W 3-1 v Real Sociedad.
Brighton are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ Chelsea, W 4-0 v Tromso, W 4-0 v Aston Villa, D 0-0 @ Tromso.
Chelsea hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 4 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chelsea 4-3 Brighton.
The market prices CHE at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Brighton: a 20.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
