Where the market is wrong on Aberdeen v Kilmarnock
Aberdeen meet Kilmarnock in the Premiership regular season - 6 at Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 63%. Attacking output favors Kilmarnock on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Aberdeen arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rangers, W 3-0 v Dundee, L 0-2 @ Dundee, W 2-1 v Heart Of Midlothian.
Kilmarnock are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Dundee Utd, W 3-2 v Ayr Utd, L 1-5 v Celtic, L 3-4 @ ST Johnstone.
Aberdeen hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 4 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aberdeen 1-0 Kilmarnock.
The market prices ABE at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Kilmarnock: a 13.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
