Where the market is wrong on Matsumoto Yamaga v Osaka
Matsumoto Yamaga meet Osaka in the J3 League regular season - 5 at Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 43%. Attacking output favors Matsumoto Yamaga on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Matsumoto Yamaga arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Osaka, D 1-1 @ Kitakyushu, D 2-2 v Ehime FC, L 2-3 v Biwako Shiga.
Osaka are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Matsumoto Yamaga, W 3-0 v Ventforet Kofu, D 0-0 @ Renofa Yamaguchi, L 1-2 @ Shimizu S-pulse.
Matsumoto Yamaga hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Osaka.
The market prices MAT at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Osaka: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
