Where the market is wrong on FC Winterthur v FC Aarau
FC Winterthur meet FC Aarau in the Challenge League regular season - 9.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1528, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors FC Aarau on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.8 per match.
FC Winterthur arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Étoile Carouge, W 4-0 v Neuchatel Xamax FC, D 2-2 @ Stade Nyonnais, D 1-1 v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
FC Aarau are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v SC Kriens, W 3-2 v Rapperswil, D 2-2 @ FC WIL 1900, W 2-1 v Neuchatel Xamax FC.
The market prices FC at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Aarau: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
