Where the market is wrong on FBK Karlstad v GIF Sundsvall
FBK Karlstad meet GIF Sundsvall in the Svenska Cupen final.
FBK Karlstad rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1400. Recent form leans FBK Karlstad, 60% against 18%. Attacking output favors FBK Karlstad on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans FBK Karlstad at 72%; double chance reads FBK Karlstad or draw 79%, GIF Sundsvall or draw 48%.
FBK Karlstad arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Arlanda, W 1-0 v GIF Sundsvall, W 2-0 v Enköping, D 1-1 @ Hammarby Talang.
GIF Sundsvall are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ FBK Karlstad, D 1-1 v Helsingborg, L 0-1 @ Ostersunds FK, L 0-5 @ Sandviken.
The market prices FBK at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on FBK Karlstad: a 23.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
