Deportivo Binacional overturned a two-goal deficit to beat Cusco 4-3 in a dramatic Group Stage 2 encounter at the Estadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina in Juliaca. The result represented a significant swing from the Lemeister model's pre-match read, which had made Cusco the favourites with a 39 per cent win probability and had projected a 1-0 away victory. The seven-goal thriller was ultimately decided by the home side's clinical finishing after a disastrous opening, with T. Carranza's hat-trick proving the decisive individual contribution.
The match began in a manner that aligned with the model's expectations. Cusco struck twice inside the opening 22 minutes through S. Quillahuaman, who scored in the 13th and 22nd minutes to give the visitors a commanding lead. The early concession of two goals left Deportivo Binacional needing a rapid response, and they found it just past the half-hour mark. T. Carranza converted a penalty in the 30th minute to halve the deficit, before scoring again just before half-time in the 45th minute to draw his side level. Carranza's double was the turning point, dragging his team back into the contest after a difficult opening that had threatened to define the match in Cusco's favour.
The second half saw Deportivo Binacional seize control with sustained pressure. R. Rodriguez put them ahead in the 51st minute with a straightforward finish, completing the turnaround from 2-0 down inside six minutes of the restart. The home side's dominance was then sealed when Carranza completed his hat-trick in the 89th minute, a goal that appeared to have secured the victory. Cusco grabbed a late consolation through S. Tairo in the 90th minute, but it was too little, too late to alter the outcome of a match that had swung decisively in the home side's favour after the interval.
The final scoreline of 4-3 reflected a game that was decided by Deportivo Binacional's clinical finishing after the opening 22 minutes. With no shots, shots on target, possession, expected goals, or passing statistics available, the analysis must focus on the goal timings and the sparse rating data from the match report. The limited player ratings show that S. Quillahuaman was the standout performer for Cusco with a rating of 8.4, reflecting his two early goals that gave his side the platform to win. T. Carranza earned a rating of 7.7 for Deportivo Binacional, his hat-trick comprising a penalty and two normal goals, the first of which sparked the recovery. For the home side, R. Rodriguez contributed a rating of 6.6, with his 51st-minute goal completing the comeback. Cusco's S. Tairo, who scored the late consolation, was awarded a rating of 6.5, while no other player ratings are available to provide deeper insight into individual performances.
The Lemeister model's pre-match projection favoured Cusco, but the data from the match itself tells a story of a game that slipped away from the visitors after a dominant start. Cusco's early efficiency was not matched by their ability to sustain their performance, and they were ultimately undone by the hat-trick from Carranza and the second-half strike from Rodriguez. The absence of card data suggests a clean contest, with neither side resorting to disciplinary issues to influence proceedings.
With this result, Deportivo Binacional secured a vital three points in Group Stage 2, moving them to three points from two matches. For Cusco, the defeat leaves them on zero points, a disappointing start to their campaign after being the pre-match favourites according to the Lemeister model's 39 per cent win probability. The comeback victory will provide significant momentum for the home side, while Cusco will need to address their second-half fragility before their next outing, having conceded three goals after the interval after taking a two-goal lead. The Group Stage remains wide open, but Deportivo Binacional's resilience in turning around a 2-0 deficit marks them as a side capable of recovering from adversity in this competition.
