Where the market is wrong on Almere City FC v Heracles
Almere City FC meet Heracles in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 7 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Almere City FC, 58% against 47%. Attacking output favors Almere City FC on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.8 per match.
Almere City FC arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 14 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ MVV, L 0-1 v Jong Ajax, W 4-1 @ De Graafschap, W 3-0 @ Vitesse.
Heracles are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 20 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Jong AZ, W 5-0 v De Graafschap, W 3-1 @ FC Eindhoven, W 6-1 @ Jong Utrecht.
Heracles hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles.
The market prices ALM at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Almere City FC: a 14.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
