Where the market is wrong on Jong AZ v MVV
Jong AZ meet MVV in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 4 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer.
The baseline ratings are close, 1560 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Jong AZ, 56% against 43%. Attacking output favors Jong AZ on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Jong AZ at 63%; double chance reads Jong AZ or draw 73%, MVV or draw 54%.
Jong AZ arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 14 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v MVV, L 1-3 @ Emmen, W 5-2 @ De Graafschap, L 0-1 v FC Eindhoven.
MVV are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Jong AZ, L 0-6 @ KRC Genk II, W 1-0 v FC Volendam, W 3-2 @ FC Eindhoven.
Jong AZ hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Jong AZ 1-2 MVV.
The market prices JON at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
