Where the market is wrong on Jong Ajax v Helmond Sport
Jong Ajax meet Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 4 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Jong Ajax, 38% against 29%. Attacking output favors Jong Ajax on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Jong Ajax at 54%; double chance reads Jong Ajax or draw 68%, Helmond Sport or draw 62%.
Jong Ajax arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 10 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Helmond Sport, L 2-3 @ NAC Breda, L 4-6 v Emmen, L 1-2 @ Dordrecht.
Helmond Sport are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Jong Ajax, D 1-1 v Waalwijk, L 1-2 @ Roda, D 1-1 v De Graafschap.
The market prices JON at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
