Where the market is wrong on Atlante FC v Club America
Atlante FC meet Club America in the Liga MX apertura - 2 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. The model makes Club America the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 34% ATL, 31% draw, 35% CLU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Atlante FC on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Club America at 51%; double chance reads Atlante FC or draw 65%, Club America or draw 66%.
Atlante FC arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Necaxa, D 3-3 v Toluca, D 1-1 v Monterrey, D 3-3 @ New Mexico United.
Club America are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Club Queretaro, L 0-1 @ Los Angeles Galaxy, W 2-0 @ CDS Tampico Madero, D 3-3 @ U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
The market prices ATL at 21% implied. Our number sits apart on Atlante FC: a 13.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
