Cruz Azul came from behind to beat Puebla 2-1 at the Estadio Banorte, a result that the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured as a home win with a 46% probability. The victory was built on a significant advantage in possession and volume of attempts, though the final scoreline required a late turnaround. With 67% of the ball and 22 total shots to Puebla’s 10, Cruz Azul controlled the flow of the match, but their 1.31 expected goals against Puebla’s 0.86 suggests the performance was more about persistence than irresistible creativity.
Puebla struck first in the 28th minute when F. Monarrez scored from an A. Herrera assist. It was a rare moment of incision from the visitors, who managed only four shots on target and 33% possession. Monarrez was the standout performer of the match with a rating of 8.2, earning his side a lead they would hold for the remainder of the first half. However, Puebla had already been forced into defensive work, with their goalkeeper making five saves compared to Cruz Azul’s three, and the home side’s pressure was building.
The equaliser arrived just before half-time in the 44th minute. L. Romero scored from a J. Marquez assist, restoring parity for Cruz Azul. Romero, who had been booked for a yellow card in the 37th minute, showed composure to finish the move and earned a match rating of 7.3. The goal came at an important psychological moment, allowing Cruz Azul to go into the interval level despite having been behind for 16 minutes.
The second half saw Cruz Azul continue to dominate the ball and the shot count, with 12 attempts in the period. Their persistence was rewarded in the 82nd minute when C. Ebere scored the decisive goal from a J. Paradela assist. Ebere also finished with a 7.3 rating, reflecting his impact in the final third. Puebla’s resistance frayed late, with A. Ramirez, E. Mustre and F. Monarrez all receiving yellow cards after the 84th minute, and N. Ibanez of Cruz Azul was also booked in the 47th minute.
The data shows a clear advantage in build-up play for Cruz Azul. They completed 507 accurate passes from 565 attempts, a 90% completion rate, compared to Puebla’s 212 from 276 at 77%. That passing dominance translated into 10 shots from inside the box and 7 corner kicks, though they were also prone to blocking their own efforts with 6 blocked shots. Puebla attempted only 4 shots inside the box and had 2 offsides, underlining their difficulty in creating high-quality chances. The goalkeeper saves were balanced at three for Cruz Azul and five for Puebla, but the home side’s expected goals deficit of 1.31 to 0.86 shows they were denied by solid goalkeeping rather than poor finishing alone.
For Cruz Azul, Jeremy Márquez earned a rating of 7.6 for his assist and overall contribution, while Jesús Orozco added a 7.2 in defence. Emiliano Gómez of Puebla was rated 7.3 in a losing cause. The result gives Cruz Azul a valuable home win in the Apertura - 2 round, while Puebla will reflect on a performance that was competitive for an hour but ultimately lacked the quality to hold out. The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a 2-0 home win overestimated the margin, but its general direction was correct.
