Where the market is wrong on Venezia v Fiorentina
Venezia meet Fiorentina in the Serie A regular season - 4 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Venezia, 70% against 58%. Attacking output favors Venezia on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans Venezia at 63%; double chance reads Venezia or draw 74%, Fiorentina or draw 54%.
Venezia arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ AC Milan, L 0-2 v Lecce, W 3-2 v Modena, D 2-2 @ Stade Brestois 29.
Fiorentina are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Frosinone, L 0-4 @ AS Roma, W 4-1 v Benevento, D 1-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Venezia hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina.
The market prices VEN at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on Venezia: a 10.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
